Key Trends
- World-wide reciprocal tariffs announced
- Carrier population shows signs of stabilizing
- Flatbed volumes continue to surge, boosting the lackluster van market for a positive outlook
April News
President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on dozens of nations on Wednesday. There is a baseline tariff of 10% being imposed, with several countries being hit with steeper tariffs on imports. The tariffs are around 50% of what other countries levy on exports from the United States. The announced tariffs also include 25% tariffs on certain imported vehicles and auto parts. Canada and Mexico will see a 25% tariff on non-USMCA goods and continue to see USMCA compliant goods excluded. Tariffs of note are: 34% on China, 32% on Taiwan, 24% on Japan, 20% on the EU, and 10% on the United Kingdom. President Trump clarified his aim of the tariffs is to bring more manufacturing jobs back to the United States. The blanket 10% tariffs will go into effect April 5 with the reciprocal tariffs going into effect April 9.
Market Trends
Supply Update
With adjustments to historical truck utilization data, the forecast for 2025 has active truck utilization coming in shallower and now not expected to hit 95% until 2026. February came in at 93.2% utilization.
The FMCSA authorized 4,085 new carriers in February with revocations net of reinstatement totaling 4,340. These numbers signal signs of the carrier population continuing to stabilize.
Demand Update
Spot volumes for van and refrigerated equipment have continued to be lower in comparison to previous years but are still anticipated to be positive y/y. The largest influence of the decrease in loadings is the decrease in food loadings and lower growth in consumer goods. Flatbed volumes have surged since February. While the source of the increase is not completely clear, most signs point to the pull forward of imports of equipment and metals to avoid potential tariffs.
Rate Update
Spot softness limits truckload rate recovery in 2025 but still looks more carrier friendly. A weaker recovery in spot rates has caused an adjustment to the total rate forecast for 2025 down to +2.5% y/y down from the +3.3% forecast. If the recently announced tariffs cause a slowdown in consumer spending, we may see a further decrease in spot rates for the short term.
Market Forecast
The Trucking Conditions Index made a recovery in February, reaching a nearly neutral value of -0.21. This improvement was driven by slightly stronger freight volumes and better capacity utilization. However, weaker freight rates and less favorable financing conditions offset these gains. Looking ahead, the index is expected to turn positive starting in May. On the fuel front, the national average for diesel is down 47 cents y/y, with expectations for it to remain within a 15-cent range in the coming months. Additionally, with the potential impact of new tariffs on import and export volumes, along with a more cautious rate outlook, market conditions are temporarily uncertain. April will serve as a critical pulse check for the rest of the year.
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Our Team
七色视频 Intern Award Dinner
The 七色视频 Intern Award Dinner celebrated this year鈥檚 MARK 499: The 七色视频 Sales Experience interns, who embraced every challenge, honed their skills, and made a significant impact. A huge thank you to our interns for their dedication and hard work, and to our team leads for their guidance and mentorship. The future is bright, and we鈥檙e excited to see where it takes you! Special thanks to the Marketing and Sales Innovation Alliance at the University of Tennessee for making this experience possible!